biotech.quantcalc.app

Method

Every sheet is built the same way, from the same documents, in the same order.

Sources, in order of authority

SEC filings — 10-Q, 10-K, proxy. Cash, operating loss, share counts (from the cover page, not the balance sheet), going-concern language, convertible terms, warrants, insider ownership, legal proceedings.

ClinicalTrials.gov — the trial's registered design, primary completion date, and its version history, which shows whether the primary endpoint registered today is the one registered when the study began.

FDA label index — which approved products already carry the indication.

What a sheet does and does not say

A sheet states what the documents say. It does not rate a company, predict a trial result, or recommend a trade. Where a figure needs judgement — a market's true size, a trial's design quality, what a drug is worth — the sheet leaves it out rather than guess.

Scoring

A call is resolved by a future event. Today that means: whether the company raises capital before its registered primary completion when the filings say the runway falls short, or within four quarters when the runway is under a year. Outcomes are recorded on the scoreboard as confirmed, refuted, or not applicable (for example, when a readout date moves). Misses remain on the board.

Immutability

Sheets carry their publication date in the address and are not edited afterwards. A material change in the filings produces a new dated sheet, and both remain published.